Gauge opinion

The Dark Arts: Rugby and Politics

2012-02-17T11:04:00.001-08:00

My life at the moment is a combination ofrugby and politics. Playing at the weekends for Warlingham 4^th XVand working behind the scenes during the week on the Mayoral Election campaignfor London Liberal Democrats. There are occasionally interesting parallels between the two worlds.

Boris and Ken seem to me a bit like two batteredold props locking heads in the front row of a the political scrum. If thelatest polls are anything to go by they are pretty evenly matched. They arespending the time biting lumps out of each other trying to get a slightadvantage.

The skills required for success in politicsand in the front row of a rugby scrum are often described as ‘The Dark Arts.’It is a world that few people really understand and even fewer speak of. Thereare things that go on there that no-one is really proud of and no-one likes toadmit. Boris and Ken being the wizened old political beasts that they are knoweverything there is to know about the dark arts and are, I suspect, deployingthem all hidden away from public scrutiny.

From a spectator’s or a voter’s point of viewthe battles in the front row can be somewhat impenetrable. Often moreinteresting and entertaining is what goes on once the ball is given to thebacks. Waiting out on the wings of the London election fixture is my candidateof choice, the fitter, healthier and less obviously scarred by politicalbattles past, one Brian Paddick.

Former senior Met Police Borough Commander,Brian Paddick spends more time in the gym I suspect than Boris and Ken puttogether. He is in a lot better shape as a result. He also probably spends abit more time than them with his colleagues in the Liberal Democrat team forLondon, carefully preparing detailed policies and initiatives for London thatwe can campaign on together over the coming months.

Like backs on the rugby pitch, LiberalDemocrats don’t get the political ball passed to us very often. When we do getan occasional opportunity it is in the full scrutiny of the media and thevoting public. If we are quick witted and nimble enough we can occasionallymake a bit of political headway. More often than not however, it’s a hospitalpass we get, and a bone-crunching tackle that comes shortly afterwards. Here’shoping that Boris, Ken and the media scrum around them give us a chance to runwith the ball once or twice during this political grudge match. Brian Paddick andhis team have a few nifty moves ready for when they do.

StevenGauge is Campaign Director for London Liberal Democrats and his book “My Lifeas a Hooker” about taking up rugby in middle age was released by SummersdalePublishing on 6^th February 2011 and is available online at Amazon and in 150 branches of Waterstones around the UK. For a signed copy click here

Nose Empathy

2011-11-02T09:25:00.000-07:00

Fellow nose op sufferer Ed Miliband at PMQ's
but its Ed Balls who makes the most impact

I’ve been feeling a bit sorry for Ed Miliband this week. Mostly because I’ve just gone through a nose operation similar to the one the Leader of the Opposition had a few months ago. I’ve been stuck at home nursing a bunged up and tender conk and it’s not been pleasant for me or indeed anyone in the vicinity.

I’m not sure what caused Ed’s septum to deviate but my malfunctioning hooter was caused by a punch received on the rugby pitch during a game against local rivals, Purley John Fisher RFC. Although it hurt quite a lot at the time, I was secretly rather pleased to have been making enough of a nuisance of myself to have warranted punching in the face. I’d only taken up the game a few seasons earlier at the ripe old age of 35. This was the very first time that any opponent had felt it might be helpful to put me out of the game for a bit.

I’m not sure whether Ed Miliband is making enough of a nuisance of himself at the moment to be worth punching, metaphorically speaking of course. Today’s Prime Minister’s question time was dominated by the Shadow Chancellor Ed Balls doing a much better job of getting under Dave Cameron’s shiney skin, by gently heckling throughout the session. Balls knows where all the economic fault lines are, having created many of them. I’m sure there are plenty of former public school boys on the Government benches who would love to give Ed Balls a thump whilst the referee’s attention was elsewhere. I'm not sure they would bother clobbering Miliband Jnr just at the moment.

You can of course read more about the nose crunching incident against Purley John Fisher in my book My Life as a Hooker. It is due out until the spring but thanks to the wonders of the internet can be pre-ordered on Amazon already.

Complex Attacks and Complex Politics

2011-10-20T06:36:00.001-07:00

‘What is a complex attack?’ was the question I asked the Scouse ex-squadie running the Hostile Environment Training that I was sent on before my recent trip to Afghanistan for the Westminster Foundation for Democracy. A complex attack, it turns out, is when the bad guys combine two or more modes of attack on one target at the same time. Say a suicide bomber, followed by some snipers and maybe a rocket attack thrown in for good measure. Suitably terrified, I set off for a week of training Afghan political party organisers in the dark arts of election campaigning armed only with a power point presentation, some luminous post it notes and magazine round full of marker pens.

However, my first impression of Kabul was far from terrifying. The Embassy fixer, who was sent to meet us at the airport was a local, Afghan employee who appeared to know absolutely everyone within a square mile of the airport concourse. He shook hands with, or kissed, or embraced and more often than not did all three to literally every single person we passed on the way to our armoured car. Then it was into some terribly fetching body armour for a circuitous, insurgent avoiding route across the city to the British Embassy Compound.

By the diving board put to gruesome
use by the Taliban in Kabul

The Afghan politicians we met were a delightful, positive and constructive lot, determined to make a success of their new democracy and desperate to avoid a return to the bad old days of Taliban rule. During a lunchtime break we were taken up to the top of Swimming Pool Hill, where the Russians had built a swimming pool with a set of high diving boards to train their Olympic athletes. Apparently, the Taliban used to take anyone they didn’t like up to the top board and give the option of being pushed off into the empty pool below or being shot. Charming.

Will the fragile Afghanistan democracy survive once the foreign troops pull out in 2014? It is impossible to predict. Brits and Americans are clearly a target for terrorist attacks but, from my limited viewpoint, life for everyone else in Kabul seemed to be going on relatively normally. It was certainly less terrifying than many other capital cities I have been in and a lot less violent and unpleasant than Croydon on riot night.

The political parties don’t differentiate themselves along social class lines in the way that our parties do here. The Afghans don’t really have a class system in a way that we would recognise, but as one Afghan politician told us, ‘The only class we have here is a fighting class.’ The struggle will be to find some way of bringing that group within the democratic process.

Comparing beards with Rohullah Hotak - He won.

In a few years time British soldiers will have ended their mission in Afghanistan. One can only hope that not too many more will lose their lives between now and the final withdrawal.

Making the democratic institutions work properly and supporting the political parties to articulate and represent the needs of the communities, tribes and ethnic groups that make up the diverse nation is the next important phase. It will take a complex package of political and diplomatic support but the for the sake of stability and peace in the region and the wider world, it has to succeed.

Baboon Research Spells Bad News for England Rugby Against a Mutinous France

2011-10-05T05:42:00.000-07:00

The mutterings of a mutiny amongst the French Rugby players against their troubled coach Marc Lievremont may turn out to be rather bad news for the England team. Animal Behaviour research suggests that when an Alpha male starts to look weak in, say, a herd of red deer or a troupe of baboons, male testosterone levels start to soar. As the French head coach starts to flounder in press conferences, and lose the confidence of the players, the rutting stags in the French pack will be getting pumped up and aggressive just in time for Saturday’s World Cup quarter final against England.

Comparing French rugby players to a bunch of baboons might be a dangerous strategy but here goes anyway: Studies of male baboons led by Jacinta Beehner at the University of Michigan found that increases in testosterone production preceded elevations in social dominance rank. One sniff of a shift in the power structure and the testosterone levels start to soar. If the alpha male starts to look a little wobbly, the rest of the troupe start to get more aggressive ready to compete for the top slot.

It happens in the workplace too. I remember working for a male dominated organisation where the Chief Executive announced he was stepping down. A few days later, I was called into a meeting to witness two of the Directors, who had previously been mild mannered and gentle little souls, locking horns in a battle of wills over a ridiculous row about parking spaces. It was all I could do to stop myself from providing a whispered David Attenborough style commentary to the unfolding scene.

When I announced I was stepping down from the captaincy of Warlingham 4^th XV, admittedly a few notches down the pecking order from the French International team, there were a few interesting reactions, not least from Danny ‘Anger Management’ Gillespie, who was eventually to become my successor. You will have to wait until February and the publication of “My Life as a Hooker” for the rest of that story, but you can pre-order a copy here ;-)

'It's complicated"

2011-08-23T06:10:00.001-07:00

“It’s complicated,” the Facebook status that says it all. That was how one young person described life as a political activist in Tunisia to me this morning at a seminar organised by the Westminster Foundation for Democracy. Overthrowing an evil corrupt dictator is difficult and dangerous but its fairly simple to explain and to package for the media. There is one baddie and everyone else is good. With a satellite dish plugged into a car cigarette lighter, it can be presented cleanly to the watching world.

The young political party activists from Egypt and Tunisia I met this morning are embarking on the more complicated job of creating and sustaining a democracy once the TV cameras have moved on to the next crisis. They are right. It is complicated. Balancing the competing needs of the once united revolutionaries takes patient negotiation and requires robust democratic institutions.

Being a Liberal Democrat activist is a bit complicated too just at the moment though nothing like what these young Middle Eastern and North African revolutionaries have been through over the last year. ‘It’s complicated,’ is a perhaps the only way to describe the Liberal Democrats relationship status with the other political parties in the UK. We had been single for many years. On and off with the Labour party, but their bipolar personality disorder left us feeling like the victims of domestic violence. Now we are in some sort of relationship with the Tories, which might or might not work out. Its early days and we’re still not sure we can trust them. With riots at home and revolutions abroad, not to mention a global economic meltdown, we all probably, ‘Need to talk.’

Time for the Lib Dems to 'Man up'

2011-05-07T11:22:00.000-07:00

During the last General Election, I was lucky enough to be part of the team that managed some of the Cleggmania as I set up high profile media events for the Liberal Democrat leader around the country. During the last couple of months, I have been back on the road again setting up the same sort of things but in very different circumstances.

One thing that hasn’t changed in the last twelve months is Nick Clegg. He is still the same person, saying the same sort of things in more or less the same sort of way. He is very good on a one to one basis with real people, and I have witnessed people totally change their minds about him in a positive way, when they meet him and hear him speak. He is an intelligent, thoughtful man with rock solid, compassionate, liberal values.

One thing that has changed is the media mood music.

When I set up events for Nick Clegg before the election, the media only chose to use positive images of this new kid on the block. Now, just twelve months later, run exactly the same event and the commentary and picture selection is completely different. Cleggmania was a little bit bonkers and its current hysterical replacement is much the same; different sides of the same bankrupt currency.

How things turn out next depends very much on how Liberal Democrat party members respond to this dramatic change of fortune. Whether we stick together or fall apart.

When I’m not spin doctoring for the Lib Dems, I play a little rugby. Indeed my beloved Warlingham 4^th team, once the third worst side in Surrey, has just won the Surrey Foundation League and I’m off with the team to pick up a trophy from Twickenham next week. Every now and again there are lessons from the rugby pitch that turn out to be useful when dealing with the media scrum and the other political sides we play the game of politics with.

We have a motto in the 4^thsthat has served our team well. It is that “No one gives anyone any sh*t for being sh*t.” It is all too easy when your side goes down by a couple of tries after fifteen minutes to start looking for people to blame. Teams that start squabbling amongst themselves and picking faults in each other’s performance tend to start playing even worse and concede even more points.

The Lib Dems are the third party in Britain, with fewer resources than the other parties, just fifty seven MPs and a handful of Government Ministers. The political game doesn’t always go our way, but we share a set of values and are all in it for the same reasons. We all want to create a tolerant, liberal society where social justice improves and our civil liberties are strong.

The last thing that Liberal Democrats should do now is to start attacking each other. What we need to do is up our game. We are in Government now, for the first time in decades. We are in a different league and the game got a bit tougher. Now is the time to support our team-mates, put in our tackles a little bit more aggressively and run hard towards any gaps in our opponents defences. At the risk of offending my feminist colleagues, Liberal Democrats, we need to, ‘Man up’.

Behind the scenes, Liberal Democrats are running a programme called “Winning Teams”, looking to rebuild the party’s base by creating and supporting successful campaigning teams ready to pop up and win in unexpected places all around the country. We really need to understand teamwork properly and apply it at every level of the party if we are to avoid relegation at the end of this political season.

CHAMPIONS!

2011-04-13T03:40:00.000-07:00

On the last Saturday of the season, 4^th team Captain Danny Gillespie had 36 players making themselves available to be part of his team against Old Wandsworthians. This might have had something to do with the fact that his table topping side were all set to seal the Surrey Foundation League championship with a champagne soaked home win.

This season, the Warlingham side that welcomes almost anyone and everyone, has built up a reputation for winning. Under the inspirational leadership of Danny “Anger Management” Gillespie, some great sides have been put together and some great clubs from across the county have been treated to some really competitive games.

With a pack built around the legendary David Halliwell, a substantial second row with his own personal gravitational force field, Warlingham forwards have dominated in scrums and the business end of the game. Our backs have benefitted from intelligent and imaginative distribution at fly half by Andy Cullen, a refugee from last season’s A2s and we’ve even managed to get the occasional ball out as far as everyone’s favourite inbetweener, Joe Yates for the odd try.

Almost everyone in the club seems to have had a run out for the fours at some point in the season, whether coming back from injury or just enjoying the odd game without too much emphasis on training. New players have been introduced to the club through the 4s and have made their way into some of the more senior sides inspite of Danny’s best efforts to hang onto them.

Our only defeat all season was away against a Merton 2^rd team, masquerading as their 3rds. The championship was probably settled with a massive win against a very grumpy Sutton and Epsom 5ths at home. Even with Errol Flynn playing for them at fly half, the Black and White hooped visitors, looked to have been seriously flattered by their position at the head of the table up until that point.

Sadly Old Wandsworthians had heard of our reputation for winning and decided to go and find an easier friendly elsewhere. The walkover gave us the title but not quite the excuse we had hoped for a party. 4^th team stalwarts however will be no doubt out in force for the club dinner this Friday. Those who survive that may be making themselves available again to Mr Gillespie for his hastily arranged trip to the seaside on Easter Saturday for a end of season finale against Sussex East Bishops Finger League runners up, Cinque Ports.

A huge thank you to everyone who has played for and supported the 4ths throughout the season and building up the side over the last few years. Thanks also to the Captains of all the other sides for allowing Danny to hide and hang onto talent players for as long as he did. Warlingham 4ths are what club rugby is all about.

In the Surrey Foundation Leagues inaugural season it is a source of great pride that the first time an engravers burin or laser touches the trophy, will be to carve the name “Warlingham” into the silverwear.

Shame on who?

2011-04-05T03:10:00.000-07:00

Last week I helped to set up a series of visits around the Midlands for Nick Clegg, the Deputy Prime Minister. There was a visit to a major engineering firm, ARUP in Solihull, a meeting with local party members in Hinkley, a "Town Hall" style meeting and a visit to a Mosque in Leicester.

There was a demo of about 50 people outside the public meeting in Leicester. The chant of choice for demonstrators these days seems to be "Shame on you. Shame on you. Shame on you for turning blue." I had it chanted at me a few weeks ago as I was trying to find my way into to the Lib Dem conference in Sheffield. It is as though the greatest crime Lib Dems have committed is wearing a different colour rosette at elections. Its all seems tribal and childish, more like a playground bullying for supporting the wrong football team. Surely life and politics is more sophisticated than that.

There are complex issues at stake and the Lib Dems in government may or may not be getting it right. There is democratic upheaval in the Middle East, and the economic legacy of the banking crisis back at home. A Liberal Democrat Deputy Prime Minister getting out and about, engaging with people outside Westminster, outside election time, has got to be a good thing.

Arab Spring? Lessons from Kyrgyzstan

2011-03-28T08:49:00.000-07:00

What happens once the Arab Spring turns into Summer, Autumn or Winter? I’ve just returned from Krygyzstan, which had its own democratic uprising last April, before they became quite so fashionable. This former Soviet Republic may have some lessons for new and old democracies around the world.

For a small unfamiliar country, landlocked in the middle of Asia, there seems to be an awful lot of international interest in Kyrgyzstan at the moment. I was surprised to see US military air transport planes parked up in the airport, as I arrived on a visit organised by the Westminster Foundation for Democracy. I was also intrigued to see the number of diplomats and NGOs tripping over themselves to strengthen contacts within the fledgling parliament.

It might be something to do with the fact that this small independent nation is inching its way towards becoming a successful parliamentary democracy, in a region not known for its pluralism or defence of human rights and civil liberties.

In April of 2010, a civil uprising saw a hated and corrupt president forced into exile in Belarus. In the struggle, 86 innocent people were shot by snipers from the top of the presidential headquarters, whilst the president sat in his office on the 7^th floor. The photo above is a memorial to those who fell.

A new interim government was formed and in June a referendum voted in a new constitution that shifted power towards a multi party parliament. Successful elections followed and five parties made it over the 5% threshold and began coalition negotiations to form a government. The MPs moved into the Presidential HQ in a symbolic transfer of power. An interim President moved to the old Parliament. Other trappings of power were removed and it seems even the Presidential Yurt has been dismantled.

The current coalition is made up of three parties – the Social Democrats, a newly formed business led alliance called Respublica and Ata Jurt, the remnants of the former regime. A socialist party and a centre right party provide a robust opposition, chairing key parliamentary committees.

Kyrgyzstan is surrounded by countries whose leaders might be thought to have an interest in seeing this democratic experiment fail. Putin has unfairly described it as a failed state. Leaders in neighbouring …stans might not welcome the success of free speech and multi party democracy on their borders.

But as one NGO head working there said “The democratic experiment in Kyrgyzstan hasn’t failed yet, but it will fail if democratic countries don’t help.”

The parliament and its MPs are young, inexperienced and perhaps naïve. They are in danger of being dragged into the bureaucracy of government and loosing contact with the voters. In a country where travel is not difficult, and with a parliament elected by a party list system, it will be all too easy for politicians to become disengaged from the public. Violent ethnic conflict in the South of the country threatened to undermine the fledgling democracy in June of last year.

They are however open to offers of outside support and help. They are particularly keen to find out more about the Westminster model. They want to develop skills for drafting their own legislation after years of having laws passed down from Moscow or cut and pasted from other former Soviet States.

The political parties are young too and have not yet developed a strong ideological identity. Although there are lots of NGOs lurking, none are in a position to be able to help the political parties develop their policy platforms. None are in a position to be able to help the political parties to campaign and maintain or strengthen their links with the electorate.

The political parties are heavily dependent on the personality of the party leaders. Their personal relationships are the main factor in determining the success of coalitions and alliances. They are all under immense personal pressure from within and outside the country.

Now would seem to be the time when it is important for Western leaders and democrats everywhere to help cement the political institutions in Kyrgyzstan and strengthen the emerging political parties. This is a country that was one of the first in the recent surge of democratic uprisings to take a brave stand against autocratic and oppressive rule. 86 people lost their lives here standing up for democracy. If we can, we should help to make sure their lives were not lost in vain.

Croydon Back Breaker

2011-02-15T14:47:00.000-08:00

I can normally measure how tough a game of rugby has been by seeing how long it takes to put on my socks on the following Sunday morning. After the last 4^th team game it took until about Tuesday lunchtime and ever since my back has been an absolute nightmare. I’ve been waddling around like and incontinent 90 year old for nearly two weeks but it was worth it to be part of the 11 try massacre Warlingham’s mighty 4s inflicted on Croydon at Hamsey Green back on the 5^th Feb.

Getting a place in Danny Gillespie’s starting line up is getting tougher each week. Everyone wants a run out with a winning side and captain Gillespie had a quality group of players to choose from. Once again I spent the first half with the linesman’s flag on one touchline and John Glover spent it with his Fisher Price Doctors and Nurses kit on the other.

Still we were treated to the spectacle of some great Warlingham tries. Two new wingers escaped from a cancelled hockey fixture and played so well that anyone who knows their names or phone numbers has been locked away in Gillespie’s basement, with his Elvis memorabilia. Neil Robson, returning after a long injury break, dominated in the forwards and scored a great try. He might have got another as he broke through the Croydon forwards around the halfway line. Unfortunately after a short sprint, he ran rapidly out of breath and desperately looked around to find one of the hockey refugee wingers to ready to take the ball and finish off the job for him. Loads of other tries were scored but James Warne’s seemed to enjoy his the most, judging by the huge grin on his face after his energetic support-play paid off.

With a comfortable points difference, Danny was able to rest a few of his better players at half time and bring on the old lags to even things up a bit. Croydon regrouped and came back fighting. I saw an opportunity to practice my tackling as one of the smallest and oldest Croydon players came running at me with the ball. Unfortunately the psychotic granddad just dipped his head and ran it straight into my ribs. The only other highlight of my game was spent being affectionately headbutted at every scrum by the Croydon hooker.

John Glover was particularly sprightly. Nurse Gladys Emanuel must have been slipping something into his nightly cocoa. At one point he was within a few feet of scoring a try after chasing the fly half Andy Cullen on a break through the Croydon backs. After scoring tries at will, Cullen was keen to avoid buying a jug, so generously popped the ball to Glover Snr, on the five metre line. Glover however also realised the financial implications at the bar of a rare senior citizen try and managed to fall over a yard short. Cullen picked up the ball and touched it down over the line and the moth eaten wallet stayed firmly locked in the Glover manbag.

Next week sees us travelling to Old Becs, but the top of the table, Foundation League Championship decider with Sutton and Epsom is coming soon after on the 5^th March. I only hope my back recovers by then.

War Gaming for Local Councillors

2011-01-24T14:41:00.000-08:00

I’ve been rediscovering the joys of war-gaming recently. No, I haven’t been digging out the Dungeons and Dragons twenty sided dice or dusting off the old Diplomacy set. There hasn’t been time in my life to fritter away hours negotiating and breaking make-believe pan-European alliances or slaying imaginary orcs since I was a nerdy teenager on a snowday.

What I have been doing though is working with some Lib Dem council groups prepare for the council budget setting process. In tough economic times the battle around local government budgets looks set to be particularly bloody this year. Money is painfully tight and jobs and services are under threat like never before. “War Gaming” can be a really useful way for groups to test out different strategies for tackling the political issues and think about how their opponents, the media and the voters might react.

The groups I have been working with seem to have found it really useful to look at a problem through the eyes of the other parties, the unions or the local voluntary sector. It has given them a really strong understanding of the strategies they need to apply in the real world now in order to avoid the problems they experienced in the game.

Understanding the intricate details of local government finance is all very well but in a moving situation such as an unfolding council budget setting process, it is impossible to prepare for every eventuality. What most groups need is to be able to work together closely as a team, adapt quickly and make decisions that get the best deal for the people they represent. You don’t want to be learning how to do that in a real life situation. A bit like going it not a flight simulator, war-gaming is a great way to sharpen up your skills without the risk of making your mistakes in public.

Not quite as much fun as picking up a plus three broadsword after defeating a passing paladin in a fantasy labyrinth but perhaps slightly more useful.

One for the Wrinklies

2011-01-20T08:51:00.000-08:00

I have been feeling a little old this week. The rugby related aches and pains seem to be taking longer to clear and my teenage son is studying things in history that I watched happen on the news. So it didn’t help when I was overlooked in the pre-match warm up drills in favour of a sprightly and keen John Glover (103) before the Warlingham 3rd XV fixture against Old Paulines.

With hooker Ciaran Byrne captaining the side, my preferred position in the middle of the front row was unlikely to become available. Once again I was running up and down the touchline waving my arms about and waiting for someone to get an injury.

You do get to see a bit more of the game from the linesman’s position and I was able to witness a great try from Stephen Parker. With the physique of a size zero model, he slipped through some impossibly small gaps in the Old Pauline’s defences and ran almost half the length of the pitch to score. Unfortunately I was also able to witness some dismal missed tackles from Warlingham as our opponents ran in a number of largely unopposed tries of their own.

Rugby is a team game that has a role for almost everyone. Chris Chapman’s main contribution seems to be in the shouting department, offering helpful suggestions and encouragement at full volume before during and after the game. Sadly for him but fortunately for me, he pulled a muscle in his tonsils after half an hour or so I managed to get on the pitch.

It was great to be able to witness the quick thinking Shane Webzell at close quarters. He may be one of the more senior players in the side, but he is desperately fit having just returned from ascending Mount Everest on a unicycle or some such sponsored stunt. With age comes great wisdom and it was a treat to watch him take a quick tap penalty and then, rather than wear himself out unnecessarily, take a detour into an opposing player who hadn’t retreated the full ten yards, win another penalty further up the pitch and a little breather.

The highlight of the whole game, which I think we lost by the way, came courtesy of little Matt Robinson, a supremely confident scrum half and fully paid up cast member of the Inbetweeners. Matt is a joy to watch play, especially when he has the ball and sets off on a cheeky run through the opposition forwards. However this was not his finest hour.

In the last few minutes in a game where tackling had not been our strong point, Matt was our last line of defence against an opposition player running at him at some pace. The Old Paulines man was indeed old, not old by Ron Head/John Glover standards but certainly thinning up top and looking a little lived in.

“Come on old man,” called the young number nine as he psyched himself up for the tackle, possibly not realizing he was speaking out loud. The old man in question, took one withering look at Matt, and with a flick of his zimmer frame, stepped round the shamefaced young back and ran off to score yet another try.

With my Alzheimer’s setting in I can’t quite remember the final score, but lets just settle for one nil to the wrinklies.

A game. A game. At long last a game.

2011-01-10T17:34:00.000-08:00

This Saturday, Warllingham ‘s 4^th team captain Danny Gillespie had assembled 21 players desperate to run off the mince pies, after almost a month without a game. So, he was understandably spitting turkey feathers when our opposition Haslemere, cried off a few hours before the game.

Fortunately the kindly Irish elf and third team skipper, Ciaran Byrne was back in Warlingham after helping out in Santa’s workshops over that last few months, and he agreed to give a few of us a run out against Old Reigations. All we had to was wait for one or two of Ciaran’s boys to get themselves injured or exhausted and we were on.

Sadly, for most of the first half, Reigations didn’t look like inflicting much damage as the Warlingham forwards powered through and picked up three very straightforward tries. Shane Webzell got two of them and Ciaran Byrne enjoyed a gentle unopposed jog from the base of the scrum ten yards out to score the other one. Ben Freeman was able to crash through their centres at will and Matt Robinson took advantage of a wide range of options at the back of the scrum.

Dan Kewell did however do the sporting thing and managed to get himself injured, entirely on his own. Untroubled by the opposition, he was chasing a kick over the Reigation touchline. He threw himself into the air, to try touch the ball down, flying like Superman. He landed rather more like Subo and went off with a knackered shoulder, making way for Gillespie and his anger management issues.

At half time the Warly boys struggled to find anything much to talk about, things were going so well. Reigatians however had a serious heart to heart and came back fired up and enthused. Forcing their way into the Warlingham half they secured a succession of penalties and a very competent kicker slotted them home and taking them to within a point.

The 4ths on the bench set off for an unprecedented warm up jog round the pitch and a few managed to catch the captains’ eye. Robin Fawke came on and went on a few of his trademark rampaging runs through the opposition defences. Sustained pressure from the combined 3s and 4ths forces eventually led to a try from Dave Rundle. Warlingham held on for the win and in the post match huddle Byrne paid tribute to a great club victory.

Now if only we could get some 4^th team opposition some of us might the 80 minutes of rugby we rather urgently need.

Nigel's death - a feminist plot?

2011-01-04T14:36:00.000-08:00

Nigel Pargetter is better off out of the Archers. Like almost every male character in the long running Radio Four soap, he has been a simplistic negative stereotype for far too long. Nigel has filled the role of upper class twerp, mummy’s boy and bungling buffoon, whilst Elizabeth has done the long suffering wife thing, run the successful business at Lower Loxely Hall and heroically brought up the Pargeter progeny.

As a former fan, I had to give up listening to the Archers years ago. With Vanessa Whitburn as editor, the series seems to pursue a relentlessly anti-male agenda. Virtually, all the men are portrayed as either insensitive morons, scheming criminals or feuding siblings. All the women, with the possible exception of the ridiculous Linda Snell, are hard working, terribly put upon and otherwise thoughtful, intelligent and understanding.

It was no great surprise that in the storyline that was supposed to Shake Ambridge To The Core, that the men were involved in a foolish escapade that ended in a death. Meanwhile the women overcame a medical emergency, which was clearly no fault of the confident and independent Helen. The birth of her baby by emergency section provided a convenient opportunity to send out some helpful public health information for women about pre-eclampsia. No doubt her impeccable single parenting of her child will provide the positive side of the unfolding narrative over the coming years (until of course he becomes an idiot teenage boy).

Feminists realised decades ago that negative images of women in the media reinforce negative behaviour towards women, and also encourage conforming behaviour by women in real life. Men have failed to notice it happening to them. Dozy Archer males are just the tip of the iceberg. Next time you are watching an advert break on commercial tv try counting up the number of times the male characters are the butt of the joke and the women are generally saintly and perfect. According to a report in today's Telegraph, poor white boys now do worse in GCSEs than any other group. Its a case of life imitating art. If men were a different race or religion to women, there would be an outcry.

Nigel Pargetter has gone to a better place and the actor who plays him Graham Speed is appearing in Accolade in the Finborough Theatre from the 1^st February, an interesting looking play about men making difficult choices in the face of social pressure. The rest of the Archer male cast need to man up and boycott the lazy Whitburn storylines that make out all men to be idiots and demand characters that give a more rounded view of what it is to be a man.

One step forward...

2010-12-16T07:37:00.000-08:00

It was the middle of last week and I finally got the call I had been waiting for. The 4^th team fixture had been cancelled. Egham had cried off. More importantly, I was one of an elite group of 4s players invited to make the step up to the 3^rd team.

After weeks of snow and frozen pitches it was still touch and go whether we would find a pitch fit to play on. Our hosts were wealthy Cobham, in one of the leafier corners of Surrey and with money no object, they had presumably had the patio heaters out all week and so our game was on.

Also playing for the 3s was Mark O’Connor (OC), who has recently taken on the role of shuffling around players between the different sides in the club. This would be an excellent opportunity for me to impress him in my bid to progress through the club sides and bench for the 1s by the end of the season.

So, on balance, it probably wasn’t the best of ideas to drop him as we were practising our line-outs.

OC landed awkwardly and swore as loudly as Brian Blessed giving birth to an elephant. Other players, sensing my discomfort, said helpfully that they thought they had heard a cracking sound. Amy the physio came running across the pitch and bags of ice were strapped to the wimpering OC’s ankle. I was swiftly relieved of lineout lifting duties, and sent to run the touchline.

Cobham were a large and aggressive unit and I was quite glad to be off the pitch. Occasional 4^th team ringers Tom McJennett and Chris Redmond were getting really stuck in and under the skin of the opposition. Cobham boots and studs were getting closer to Warlingham heads and ribs more often than I’m used to.

I was quite content to jog gently up and down the touchline, doing nothing more energetic than waving my little orange and yellow flag each time the ball was kicked into trees alongside the pitch.

Cobham had a good kicker too and, with a referee who rather liked the sound of his own whistle, the hosts scoreboard kept ticking along nicely. The body count was also rising steadily as Warlingham’s finest retreated to the touchline clutching various bits of their anatomy. This may have been less to do with the physicality of the opposition and more to do with the physical appearance of the physio.

Research from the Institute of Sports Science has shown that that the number of injuries in any game of rugby is directly correlated with the attractiveness of the physio^1. and Amy is very pleasing on the eye. At 4^th team level the best one can hope for on the touchline is John Glover (age 94), a bucket of cold water and a grubby sponge. Funnily enough, people stay on the pitch for longer in the 4s, preferring to “Run off” the odd dead leg or dislocated shoulder.

With about 30 minutes to go in the second half I finally got the call “Stretch off Gaugey.” and then I was on. We were still behind at this point but fortunately the Cobham lot had worn themselves out a bit. As a result I was able to compete reasonably usefully in a ruck and maul or two and with my training tacklebag Ben Freeman jumping confidently in the lineout, my throwing in didn’t look too shabby either.

I’m not sure I did enough for OC to forget my pre-match butterfingers. His ankle hadn’t turned out to be quite as broken as we first thought so he was watching from the touchline with his ankle wrapped in ice and the ever attentive Amy mopping his poor fevered brow. It was great being on the pitch with the big boys and I was rather enjoying myself.

Then in the dying minutes of the game, as we were trailing narrowly, I had a bit part in a sustained burst of pressure from the forwards, that saw us work our way well into the Cobham half of the pitch. Eventually we let the backs have the ball and it was spun out to Dave Rundle, the stand in 3^rd team captain now playing at number 10. We thought this was probably in the last play of the game so we rather hoped that the backs would string some passes together and find a way of getting through the Cobham defences without losing the ball. This was not a time for kicking we thought.

Rundle however had other ideas. He booted the ball towards the far touchline as everyone else told him what a Jeremy Hunt, the Culture Secretary he was. Fortunately on the wing a sprightly winger had been paying attention, ran after the ball and somehow managed to touch it down in the corner for a match winning try.

Hopefully my presence on the pitch as we turned the tables on Cobham, won’t be seen by the selectors as entirely co-incidental, and this won’t be my last run out with the thirds. Sadly there are no more games for me until after Christmas, so I’ll have my work cut out to stay fit enough to keep my place after all the turkey and mince pies.

1. Probably

Tackling for Beginners

2010-11-24T06:23:00.000-08:00

Warlingham 4^th XV are back at the top of the Surrey Foundation League, in spite of having our first league defeat last weekend. One of the many joys of lower leagues rugby is that you get points for just turning up. We picked up two points simply for knowing how to get to Merton Rugby Club's ground even though for most of the first half we seemed to have forgotten how to play the game.

Meanwhile all the other sides at the top of our league lost 4 points through no fault of their own. League positions have been recalculated following the decision of Reigate RFC to withdaw their 2^nd XV from the competition. Anyone who had picked up points from a fixture against them, has now had those points taken away. We weren’t due to play Reigate until later in the season, so no points deducted from us and we are top of the table.

The game itself however was a bit of a disaster and my progress towards benching for the first team by the end of the season has taken a serious step backwards. My lack of tackling ability was cruelly exposed by the opposition hooker, who twice ran straight through me from an identical line-out move and scored two very simple tries.

My only consolation was that I managed to prevent him from picking up a hatrick, by somehow stopping him on the try line just before the final whistle. This might have had more to do with the fact that Dave Halliwell had nearly killed him a few minutes earlier with a massive hit that left him doubled up and wheezing on the ground for about 5 minutes. I also needed Joe Yates, probably the smallest other player on the pitch, alongside me to provide some bulk.

So it’s been remedial tackling practise for me this week. Too embarrassed to approach the first team coaches for such basic instruction, I have recruited one of the netball coaches, Sophie Hodge, who also plays for Caterham Women’s Rugby side, for some beginner’s tuition. Monday night and Sophie had me running up and down alongside the netball pitches, and crunching my shoulder repeatedly into the impressive sixpack of a young Ben Freeman.

It may take a little while to un-learn all my well-honed tackle avoidance strategies, like waving my arms around like a wind turbine and running very quickly and keenly towards people running at me with the ball, only to slow down at the last moment in order to avoid contact. After what felt like an hour, but was probably more like twenty minutes, of tackle after tackle on the unflinching Mr Freeman, I was beginning to get the hang of it.

The surprising thing I discovered is that it doesn’t actually hurt as much as it ought to. No league game this week, but with luck there’ll be a friendly home game set up where I can try out my new skills.

Training with the 1s leaves me in no fit state for 4th team trip to Woking

2010-10-30T05:03:00.000-07:00

I dragged myself up to a well-attended training session on Thursday evening, in an attempt to catch the eye of the Warlingham RFC selectors and make some progress towards benching for the 1^st XV by the end of the season. Sadly, my only noteworthy activity was dropping a simple pass, at the start of one of the drills with absolutely everyone watching. Not good.

It Saturday morning now and I’m slightly concerned that the backs of my thighs are still aching from the exhausting rucking exercises that club sadist (sorry, I mean Club Coach) Bill Maynard inflicted on us next. Still, I’m sure its nothing that a liberal dose of deep heat can’t solve.

Having failed to impress the selection committee yet, its a 4^th team game for me this week. My the suspension on my little Nissan Micra will shortly be shortly face the biggest sporting challenge of the day as it transports me, fellow front row player John Waghorn and the man mountain that is Dave Halliwell to Byfleet Recreation Ground to play Woking 2’s.

A quick glance at the Surrey Foundation League results table suggests that our opponents seem to be one of those sides that don’t travel well. They have won all their home games so far this season, but have failed to turn up for any away matches, giving their opponents a walkover and the resulting league points.

At this level having a fixture “cried off” is an occupational hazard, but it is still considered rather bad form to not show up. Surrey RFU have introduced some fines to act as a disincentive, but the effort of gathering together 15 dozey, beer-soaked blokes and getting them onto a distant playing field is still a massive challenge for many clubs.

Our walk-over last week gave us the points in the league but annoyingly we have slipped to second place on points difference. This is a bit annoying as had our opponents turned up and we’d beaten them by a reasonable distance we’d still be top. We’ll need a big score against stay at home Woking today to regain top-spot.

Spinning the Spending Cuts

2010-10-27T07:03:00.000-07:00

In the post-spending-review spin fest there seem to be two parallel strategies running. The Tory press is trotting out the old line on social security scroungers, the Lib Dems, using roughly the same language, are talking about getting tough on tax dodgers. Significantly, both George Osbourne and Danny Alexander used the phrase "lifestyle choice" to attack their respective targets. Its all a little tired and predictable. Some new politics wouldn’t go amiss.

As with everything I find these days, there are lessons from running my local rugby club. Collecting membership subscriptions is always a bit of a challenge in any sports club. We need the money to pay for cleaning the shirts, maintaining the pitches and the post match teas. When money starts looking tight, members of the committee start calling for a name and shame policy to flush out the non-payers. Stroppy emails are sent out complaining about people not paying, posters are put up on the clubhouse walls.

This tends to have the opposite effect to the one the committee is trying to achieve. Instead of shaming people into paying, it makes people think, “Well, if no-one else is paying, why the hell should I?” I suspect something similar happens with tax and benefit fiddling. The more politicians talk about non-doms and their off-shore millions, the more people try and work out how they can best dodge a bit of tax. The more the media highlight massive housing benefit scams the more people think, how can I get myself a bit of that.

In his influential book, “Influence,” the American psychologist, Robert Cialdini presents persuasive evidence about the power of the principle of social proof. He argues that, “We view a behaviour as correct in a given situation to the degree that we see others performing it.”

Cialdini talks about the practice of restaurant staff, “salting” their tip jars with a few dollar bills at the start of shift implying to their customers that this is the normal thing to do, and religious evangelists using stooges to get the donations flowing in. The principle of social proof is even linked to copycat suicides and extreme religious cults.

If we genuinely want to deal with the deficit, increase tax revenues and cut down benefit fraud then the media message needs to focus on the vast majority of people who do the right thing. Perhaps naming and celebrating the top taxpayers in the country once a year, along the lines of the Sunday Times rich list, might go some way towards redressing the balance.

Running a small business as I do, I have just paid my corporation tax online for my first year of trading. It felt quite good funnily enough and if there had been a button on the website where I could have shared the information on facebook about how I was helping to fund schools, hospitals etc. I might have been tempted to click on it.

There may be other ways to use Cialdini's Principle of Social Proof to reduce tax and benefit fraud. It has to be worth thinking of rather than just re-running the old 80s rhetoric. In my rugby club subscriptions are up this year and I want to make sure that everyone in the club knows it.

Gillespie's iphone takes a battering as 4ths beat Bromley

2010-10-24T04:55:00.000-07:00

It’s never a good sign when you arrive at the club and the captain, iphone glued to his ear, is explaining to someone that his team numbers had slumped from 26 on Friday evening to 8 by Saturday morning. We briefly considered getting hold of a sack and chloroform and kidnapping Tom Street, the former 1^st team captain, who was returning to watch his former side whilst on a break from national league duty at Westcombe Park.

Fortunately, by the time we got to Bromley there were somehow 17 of us and a rumour that another former Warlingham star player, now trapped in an estate agency on Saturday afternoons was planning to escape for a, “Viewing” and be with us by half time.

A referee had been found at the last minute but he wasn’t in the best of moods having been dragged away from his comfy sofa. He also appeared to know an awful lot of rules, many of which were entirely new to the 4^th team. As a result we conceded about 400 penalties in the first 15 minutes and a handful points from a Bromley boot.

Andre Otto, the powerful antipodean back row was proving to be an easy target to find in the lineout and impressive when carrying the ball through the opposition. So, in my efforts to catch the eye of the selectors, and progress towards my target of benching for the ones, I opted to stick close to him. As he powered off down the pitch, I wheezed the magic words, “On your shoulder, Andre.” As he was tackled he gifted me a beautifully timed off-load and the opportunity for a nice little run with the ball. Sadly, my pre-match visualization routine was not quite enough to see me through to the try-line, but I did manage to get the ball back towards some who could.

Matt Robinson, was unfortunate to have a try disallowed, as he had shot off so fast, that the referee, carrying a baby elephant under his shirt, was still somewhere near the half way line and needed binoculars to have had any idea what was going on.

Our estate agent escapee arrived during the second half and we all had a little rest, watching him run rings around the opposition in a ridiculously tight shirt. Once he got tackled however, we remembered that we were supposed to be playing as well rather than just spectating and so we all joined in a bit.

With Dan Barrett and John Waghorn totally dominating the opposition front row our scrums were superb all afternoon. So much so that towards the end of the second half Bromley were heard telling one of their props that he was now injured. This was clearly news to him, but it did mean that they could, ehem, reluctantly, go to un-contested scrums.

The scores were close until the final minutes. A try took us to within one point and a successful conversion kick from the touchline took us into the lead. We kept up the pressure and in the end finished comfortable winners. Once again captain Danny Gillespie, with his iphone battered and bruised from the prematch recruitment texting frenzy, led a full and happy side back to Hamsey Green, with the 4^th XV unbeaten record still in tact.

Off to Bromley

2010-10-23T04:57:00.000-07:00

Off to take on Bromley with the Warlingham 4ths for a hastily rearranged fixture. Apparently Kingston, our scheduled opposition in the Surrey Foundation League, cried off once they saw our team sheet, bursting with players, subs and ringers.

The problem with re-arranged fixtures is that they are more than likely to be miss-matches - and when you are in the bottom league in the county miss matches are rarely in your favour. However, our 2nd team has cancelled its fixture mid week so with luck we may have even more ringers in our midst.

Technically that makes us the third Warlingham side out playing today - and so technically that means I'm one step closer to benching for the ones by the end of the season. Pre-match ritual has been a light breakfast of scrambled egg on wholemeal toast and coffee. erm and some mushrooms and some bacon and some more toast. Better start visualising - thats what it says you should do in all the coaching books. Me, picking up the ball at the back of the scrum and nipping round the blind side. He steps one, hands off another, powers through a third tackle and dives for the try line.....

Benching for the Ones

2010-10-21T07:12:00.000-07:00

The mighty Warlingham 4^th XV has had a spectacular start to the season. We have won our first three games and are now comfortably top of the Surrey Foundation League. Having handed over the weighty responsibility of captaincy to the immensely able, if somewhat easily rattled, Danny “Anger-Management” Gillespie, I am now concentrating on a new mission: working my way up through the club sides so that by the end of the season I can “Bench" for the first team.

This is already proving to be something of a challenge. I am currently probably the 6^th choice hooker for the club and only really managed to keep my place in the side last season by being the person who did the selection. I’m 43, 5’5 and have a body mass index that would make John Prescott feel slender. I was already old enough to play as a veteran when I took up rugby at the age of 35. Since then, I can count the number of tries I have scored on the fingers of one hand and the number of successful tackles I have made on the fingers of one knee.

However, I am determined, before I hang up my boots for good, to have one run out in a first team shirt. I’ll probably need to train. My diet and fitness regime will need to broaden out beyond donuts and dog walking. I may need to sleep with the club coach, chairman and/or president but with your support dear reader, I’ll do it.

How to make a million from your redundancy cheque

2010-10-21T04:21:00.000-07:00

In his excellent analysis of the spending review, Richard Grayson highlights the lack of a strategy to encourage the private sector to grow and employ the thousands of public sector workers set to lose their jobs. Some of us saw this coming.

Having worked in both the public and private sectors, it is clear to me that shifting people from one sector to another won’t be without some pain. Just as we didn’t plan for the peace after the war in Iraq, I fear no one has planned for life after the public spending cuts.

My friend the Enterprise Editor of the Sunday Times, Rachel Bridge has brought out a timely little book, “How to Make a Million Before Lunch.” This should be essential reading for anyone thinking of investing their public sector redundancy cheque in starting up a new business. In it she lists the Do’s and Don’ts of launching a successful enterprise, many of which I wish I had heard before setting up my own company.

There are some clips of her talking about the subject on the Gauge Opinion YouTube Channel. We are going to need more people to follow Rachel's advice and create successful private sector businesses if we are ever going to dig ourselves out of this financial hole.

On tour with Nick Clegg

2010-10-01T08:34:00.000-07:00

“News is what somebody, somewhere wants to suppress. All the rest is advertising.” So said press baron Lord Northcliffe and he was not far wrong. If you are fortunate enough to generate some genuine news the chances are that someone, somewhere will wish you hadn’t.

When Nick Clegg became a news phenomenon after the first of the Leader’s TV debates during the general election campaign, it didn’t take long for the backlash to appear. By the morning of the second TV debate, I was in Bristol preparing a media opportunity for the Liberal Democrat leader at a community playgroup.

We knew it was going to be an interesting day. The night before, over dinner with some journalists, we noticed the hacks were suddenly a little too interested in their blackberries. The next morning’s newspapers were due to be filled with a batch of lurid (although largely recycled) headlines alleging all sorts of impropriety by the golden tie wearing man of the moment.

The next day in the playgroup car park, a large press pack were baying for blood. We were not helped by a bunch of dodgy looking types from a promotions company who were planning an ambush to create some publicity for a chain of bookmakers.

It’s at time like this when it is good to have a team of experienced media professionals on hand as well as a crowd of sympathetic supporters. Blessed with both, we were able to gather the press into one spot so that the party leader could answer one question and deliver a clear, confident statement, with a suitably tidy background. He was then able to meet the parents and toddlers as planned and have a really good chat over coffee about the real issues of the election and generate some more great images for the press.

So if you are preparing to launch yourself into the hands of the media with a well-crafted communications strategy, it is wise to be prepared for the worst. If your story is really newsworthy, someone, somewhere might be a little miffed and it is as well to have your defence and support team lined up and ready.

Steven Gauge led an advance team for Liberal Democrat leaders Nick Clegg and Charles Kennedy during the last two general elections.

Why liberals should drink Moldovan wine

2010-08-24T09:47:00.001-07:00

When you are a small landlocked eastern European nation, dependent on Russia for your exports, you might think twice before declaring a national day of remembrance of Soviet atrocities or erecting a memorial to the victims of communist oppression. Well little, liberal Moldova has done just that and is currently suffering the consequences.

Moldova is a former Soviet republic, nestled between Romania and Ukraine, close to but not quite touching the Black Sea. Its capital city Chisinau feels very European and prosperous but 75% of the population lives a relatively impoverished, rural existence. Its main export is wine and its main customer is Russia.

On June 24^th this year, the acting Moldovan President, Liberal Mihai Ghimpu established 28^th June as “Soviet Occupation Day” and ordered a monument to be erected in front of the Government building. Just a few days later, Russian inspectors found something they didn’t like in a few batches of Moldovan wine and slapped an embargo on all further imports.

It would seem that this is not the first time that Russia has used its economic clout to achieve its political aims. A previous ban, in March 2006, co-incided with a spate of border controls with the pro-Russian breakaway region of Transnistria. The impact on the Moldovan economy then was devastating with losses estimated at £180 million dollars.

So after a few days spent training some utterly delightful young liberals in Chisinau, I have resolved to take every opportunity to promote, purchase and indeed consume Moldovan wine, whenever and wherever possible. It is a tough job but someone has to do it.

2010-07-27T05:38:00.000-07:00

“We have a problem in Jordan. We have not got any politicians in our political system"

Visiting the Parliament building with colleagues from the Westminster Foundation for Democracy, we found plenty of people working there but not a politician in sight. The Jordanian Parliament was suspended in 2009 and there won’t be any MPs arriving until after the new elections in November of this year.

With no politicians to look after, the remaining parliamentary staff looked after us very well indeed. We were warmly welcomed and treated to a detailed lecture on the history of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan along with a thorough analysis of how the wider conflict in the Middle East has had lasting effects on the political structure and culture.

However, even after several other meetings, with representatives of the political parties in Jordan elsewhere in the capital city of Amman, we realised that we still hadn’t met very many people who we would describe as politicians. Most potential members of the new parliament are expected to stand as independents with support from their family or tribe. Very few are likely to openly declare a party allegiance. This is in spite of the fact that they have 19 registered political parties to choose from.

There seems to be a reluctance to engage in what we, as British political activists would understand to be “Party politics.” This is in spite of a clear indication from the ruling monarch that he would like to see Jordan develop into a modern multi-party democracy.

Older political figures blame a culture of fear that has developed as a result of previous suppression of the political parties. They hark back to a time in the 1950’s when multiple parties thrived and formed governments and strong oppositions.

Jordan’s strength is its stability in a very unstable region. Its downside perhaps is that institutional inertia may prevent it from adapting to take advantage of new opportunities. Vibrant multi-party political systems at their best can act as a creative catalyst for change, with policies and proposals tested and improved in the political arena. Jordan seems less convinced of the potential benefits of party politics and much more concerned about the risks.

The risks associated with promoting political parties in Jordan cannot be ignored. Tensions are real and the danger of instability is high. It would also be a mistake to attempt to impose a British or Western political model onto a proud Arabic culture. The political parties that emerge could easily polarise the debate and stir up old tensions.

However, we did meet younger people who gave us considerable hope for the future. Although too young to stand for parliament, with a minimum age of 30 required to become an MP in Jordan, they did seem ready to take advantage of the opportunity to move towards a party political system. They were not put off political parties by a fear of the security forces. They were however put off by old parties that fail to talk about issues that were relevant to them.

Developing a party political culture in Jordan is possible but it may take a little time. A little cross party negotiation with my Westminster Foundation colleagues and we ought to be able to come up with a decent programme to put some politicians back into the Jordanian political system.

An alternative approach to cuts in local government

2010-05-25T08:42:00.000-07:00

Over the next few years, life in local government will all be about cuts. Councils of every political shade will be forced to shed jobs to save money. Local public sector partners will also be in the same boat. Redundancies, outsourcing and restructuring will be at the forefront of every Chief Executive’s mind.

Yet local authorities and their partners will also have to deal with the impact of putting thousands of people out of work. As the public sector shrinks to help pay the deficit, there is no guarantee that the private sector will pick up the slack. Unemployment and its side effects could have a major impact on demand for public sector services of all kinds.

An alternative approach is needed.

Forward thinking local authorities will be asking, “How do we save money without creating new social problems and increasing our costs.” Some will look at ways of creatively addressing the issue.

For the economy to be turned round at a local and national level, there is probably a need to rebalance the ratio of public to private sector jobs. Traditional free market economists might just wait for the market to sort that out on its own. Cut public sector spending and wait for the spirit of free enterprise to fill the vacuum. As Norman Lamont once put it, any resulting unemployment could be seen as the “price worth paying”.

Or we can do something else as we seek to radically restructure the public sector. We could identify ways to support those currently being paid by the taxpayer to make the transition into the private sector, bypassing the dole queue on the way. A full-scale programme to encourage innovation, business development and job creation should be developed. Training, seminars, coaching should be offered to public sector workers at all levels to see if any could create the new industries and new jobs that will be needed to turn the economy around.

Local authorities with their twin responsibilities of saving taxpayers money and supporting local economic development are well placed to provide an alternative approach. The ones that act first will be reap the rewards as we climb out of the recession and back towards sustainable growth.

Why did the polls overestimate the Lib Dem vote?

2010-05-10T06:47:00.000-07:00

According to Anthony Wells of UK Polling Report, the traditional polling companies overestimated the level of Liberal Democrat support in the last General election by between 2 and 5 percentage points

So although most Lib Dems are now somewhat distracted by the negotiations around a hung parliament, there will be some who will want to ask what on earth happened to those heady days of Churchillian poll ratings.

In my view there are three possibilities:

1. Lib Dem supporters changed their minds

2. Lib Dem supporters didn’t vote

3. Lib Dem supporters couldn’t vote

It will be quite hard to test whether people changed their minds during the election campaign. You can’t simply go back and ask the people who said they were going to vote Lib Dem in the earlier polls. Those people will have been affected by the polling process itself and are no longer representative of the un-polled population.

You could attempt to identify voters who claimed to have changed their minds during the campaign, but people generally tend not to like being seen to be inconsistent. Identifying and interviewing such a group is going to be riddled with problems of misremembering and misreporting.

However we can probably assume that at least some people changed their minds. IPSOS MORI’s final poll on the Wednesday night had 40% of Lib Dems saying they might change their minds, which suggests it might have been possible. So then the question is “Why?” Various theories are already circulating around Lib Dem circles. Was it the amnesty for illegal immigrants, tactical voting messages from the other parties or the steam running out of the Cleggmania phenomenon under a relentless attack from the traditionally Tory press?

Lib Dems have also traditionally been plagued by a lack credibility. Past private polling by the Liberal Democrats has suggested that 40% of the population would vote Liberal Democrat if they thought they had a chance of winning. That would suggest that if Lib Dems don’t look like winning, much of the potential support evaporates.

Although the polls had identified a surge in a likely Lib Dem share of the vote, media pundits were quick to point out that this would have next to no impact on the number of seats won in Westminster. The public could still be forgiven for thinking that, under the current first past the post electoral system, a Lib Dem vote is a wasted vote.

A little more research is needed to find out which of the various possible reasons for people changing their minds is needed.

As someone who spent a lot of the General Election trying to make sure Nick’s visits to battleground seats looked as good as possible, I’m keen to find out what stopped the surge we felt out on the streets from turning into increased numbers of parliamentary seats. Speaking to those who at some point considered voting Lib Dem but ended up as Conservative, Labour or non-voters, might yield some interesting answers.

2 and 3 – Lib Dems didn’t or couldn’t vote.

With all the media hype after the leader’s debates, still only 65.1% of the eligible population voted. That’s 4% up on last year but still pretty unimpressive for such a close election. Are Lib Dems more or less likely to vote? Polling companies haven’t really had to think about this before but the question needs to be asked now. A quick poll of non-voters would deliver interesting results.

There was a lot of media coverage of the people who couldn’t vote on polling day because of poor planning by a few local authority returning officers. There were some very grumpy disenfranchised voters and there may be petitions and inquiries but it doesn’t look like the polling station lock outs will have affected the result significantly.

More worrying however for me is the massive numbers of people who couldn’t vote because they weren’t on the electoral register and in particular the demographic breakdown of that group. According to the electoral commission

56% of 17-24 year olds are not registered to vote. Given some of the Lib Dem surge seemed to be amongst the young (36% of women aged 18-24 voted Lib Dem – according to IPSOS MORI as reported in the Observer this weekend) Low registration in this group could hit the Lib Dems particularly badly. However, that may not explain the gap in the polls as presumably most opinion pollsters only poll those on the electoral register. Lib Dems also score quite well amongst those living in private rented accommodation - another group less likely to be registered to vote.

A poll of the un-registered might reveal some interesting strategic opportunities for the different parties. A concerted campaign by the Liberal Democrats, for example, to get young people onto the electoral register might yield results next time and turn youthful enthusiasm into enfranchisement, engagement and real electoral success.

Leaders' TV Debate Instant Text Poll

2010-04-29T10:28:00.001-07:00

Tonight Gauge Opinion Ltd. is conducting the UK's national opinion poll by text message. Immediately after the TV debate we will send out a text message to a random sample of 5000 UK mobile phone numbers, asking them how they will vote in the general election. Minutes later we expect to publish the raw results.

Over the next few days our tame statistician will put a towel over her head and crunch the data a little more, making sure that the sample we have reflects the demographic makeup of the UK and weighting the results where necessary.

We need 1000 responses to give us a meaningful sample - so if one in five people respond we will have a result and a UK first. If not we will have to try a bit harder and recruit a few more people. For this poll we have added an extra incentive of a £500 prize for the first person to respond and another £250 for the 1000th.

Fingers crossed.....

and the winner is...

2010-03-30T03:34:00.000-07:00

As the credits rolled on the Channel 4 Chancellor’s debate last night, a text message was fired off to the Gauge Opinion members’ mobiles. Within minutes the verdict was in and it was a clear victory for Vince Cable. 52% felt that the Liberal Democrat Treasury Spokesperson won the debate with 15% giving the nod to George Osbourne and only 11% identifying the current Chancellor as the winner. However, 22% couldn’t decide between the three.

We are also beginning to make donations to our partner charities now for everyone that takes part. I am currently in Bangladesh, doing some work for the Westminster Foundation and hope to be able to fit in a visit the Sreepur Village who are one of our charities that benefit every time someone signs up to take part in our text polls.

Our sample size is still not quite big enough to make a confident assertion about how well this result reflects the opinion of the British public as a whole. However, more and more people are signing up at gaugeopinion.co.uk to get their views in to the news. Some existing members are encouraging their friends and relations to sign up in order to get their views into the news too.

As Gordon Brown gets ready to go to the country in the General Election, Gauge Opinion text poll panel members will be poised to track the twists and turns of the campaign with their texting fingers.

Text Poll to Gauge the Reaction to Darling's Budget

2010-03-24T15:49:00.000-07:00

As Alistair Darling sat down after delivering his budget statement today, the mobile phone text alerts of the Gauge Opinion text polling panel started ringing. Our first text poll was up and running and we were keen to see how quickly we could gauge the political reaction to the big story of the day.

We asked whether Alistair Darling’s budget had made people more or less likely to vote Labour in the coming election and the news for Labour is not great.

For 54% of those responding all the economic statistics, tax changes and spending cuts had made no difference whatsoever to how they were planning to vote. For 29% of the panel the budget had made them less likely to vote Labour. Only 17% were sufficiently impressed to indicate that they were now more likely to vote Labour as a result of the contents of the Chancellor’s budget briefcase.

And the Gauge Opinion text polling panel members came through this trial with flying colours. This was our first text poll run primarily to test the system and see how quickly we could gather and analyse the data. Gauge Opinion text poll panel members clearly have speedy texting thumbs. 50% of our members responded within an hour and 75% within 3 or 4 hours. We still need to recruit some more panel members before we can claim that our network fully represents the views of the UK population. This poll was just of 100 people and we need 1000 to be properly representative.

But the technology works, our panel members are happy to reply to political opinion polls quickly. Now we just need to a few more people to register their mobile phone numbers at www.gaugeopinion.co.uk and stand by for the next gauge opinion text poll.

So sign up now and start texting your views into the news.

Hidden support for the BNP

2010-03-18T03:15:00.001-07:00

In an online poll yesterday 58% of people said that, of all the smaller parties, they would most like to see the BNP win its first MP at the next election. Over 1000 people took part in the poll at gaugeopinion.co.uk, a website set up to recruit a national text polling panel. The question asked "Which of the smaller parties would you like to see gain its first MP at the next election" and gave people the choice of BNP, UKIP and the Greens. Ads promoting the poll were run on facebook and google, targeted at over 18 year olds in the UK.

I was somewhat surprised at the result and, to me, it suggests one of two things - either there is a hidden level of support for the BNP in the UK as we approach the general election, or else a small network of BNP supporters have organised themselves very quickly to bump up their level of support in this particular poll. Either way its a disturbing finding for conventional politicians.

On-line polls always have to be taken with a pinch of salt. Its very difficult to ensure that you have a representative sample. That is why we are currently recruiting a panel of people prepared to take part in opinion polls by text message. Along with their mobile phone numbers we are also collecting a sizeable chunk of demographic profiling information to make sure that our samples accurately reflect the UK population as a whole - and we are using a variety of methods to recruit the panel in order to minimise and manage any possible sources of bias.

The poll is still running and you can vote and see the latest results here. Better still you can sign up to take part in our text polls here.

SamCam and Cable to Head Coalition Government

2010-03-17T03:52:00.000-07:00

An interesting collection of on-line poll results are emerging over at gaugeopinion.co.uk. The next government will be a Labour/Lib Dem coalition, with Vince Cable as Chancellor but Samantha Cameron as Prime Minister, if the people responding to our facebook and google ads get their way.

41.7% of our site visitors would like to see Sam Cam in power, if the tables were turned, with only 35.4% backing Sarah Brown. Vince Cable scores much higher than his party's general ratings with currently 56.1% wanting to see him given the top job at the Treasury. I'm not sure how well Sam and Vince would run the country together, but they'd be a killer combination on Strictly Come Dancing.

Other polls give us a 59.6% who would like us to withdraw from Afghanistan whilst all the main political parties would keep our troops there for the foreseeable future. 55.4% would like to see the current chancellor sharpening the knife and cutting public spending in the next budget, with only 11.5% wanting him to borrow more to prop up the economy.

59.3% of those people prepared to have their opinion gauged want the age of criminal responsibility kept at 10 unlike the Government advisor who called for it to be raised to 12 last week and a massive majority of 80.6% want to see known sex offender's blocked from facebook.

Online polls can be a really good way of testing our public opinion although it is difficult to be certain that you are getting a accurate reflection of British public opinion as a whole. What is encouraging is that more and more people are signing up for our text polling panel, and giving us the demographic information we need to make sure we have a more representative sample when our first few text polls are run over the next few months.

the next You Gov?

2010-03-07T11:52:00.000-08:00

About ten years ago, a couple of Conservative local councillors came up with the bright idea of conducting opinion polls over the internet. All the traditional polling companies said it would never work and their polls were dismissed. Now the company they formed turns over something like £40 million and year and employs around 450 staff. You Gov is one of the biggest polling companies in the world.

Jeffrey Archer's former assistant Stefan Shakespeare, one of the You Gov founders, hit on the right technology at the right time and made it work for them.

Today the Gauge Opinion team is wondering whether we might have hit on the right technology for the future of polling in the UK. Polling by text message. Almost everyone in the UK now has a mobile phone. Most of them have now got their heads round text messaging. Importantly, people seem to respond to text messages faster than any other mechanism. The majority of people respond to a text message within an hour. Emails can take closer to 24 hours to get the same response rate.

All we need to do is quickly recruit a network of a few thousand people, prepared to take part in polls by text message. We have teamed up with some great charities to create an incentive for people to sign up. We will donate £1 for every person who signs up and takes part in our text polls.

In ten years time perhaps everyone will be polling by text message every day of the week. Politicians will be waiting for the verdict of the British public delivered as fast as the texting thumbs and predictive text can manage. A digital shot in the arm for one of the oldest democracies in the world.

"No Party" Democracy

2010-02-05T06:52:00.000-08:00

Just back from a trip to Uganda, running a seminar for MPs over there, on behalf of the Westminster Foundation for Democracy. Ugandan politicians are just getting their heads around the concept of multi-party democracy. Up until a few years ago they had a system, quaintly referred to as "No-Party" Democracy. Essentially you could vote for your MP but there were no political parties - everyone was part of "The Movement".

A few MPs on our seminar were a little nostalgic. There are some downsides to political parties, as anyone who has followed Westminster politics over the last few years will know. Political parties require blind obedience, absolute loyalty, and ability to follow the party line at all times.

My co-trainer on the seminar, former Labour MEP Mark Watts, told a very good joke. A Labour MP, back in the early days of New Labour, was at a constituency event. He was talking about the ear piece that every MP had to wear - so that Peter Mandleson could tell them what "the line" was at any time. He took the ear piece out to show his local party workers but then, all of a sudden, collapsed and died. As the distraught local party workers picked up the ear piece and listened to it - they heard the dulcet tones of Peter Mandelson:

"Breathe in .........

Breathe out ........

Breathe in ......

Breathe out."

Musings from Macedonia

2009-12-01T02:19:00.000-08:00

I spent this weekend being simultaneously translated into Macedonian and Albanian working with a group of MPs in the Former Yugoslavian Republic of Macedonia. Like parliamentarians the world over they are grappling with a collapse of public trust in politics. However, for them the alternative to a healthy democracy means slipping back towards civil war.

It always feels a bit odd going off to train other countries about how to get their politics working well when ours in this country is so obviously up the spout. Turnout in our elections is miserably low and none of the major parties seem to get it. At the last European elections you could smell the loathing on the doorsteps and I can’t see that improving before the General Election.

I have a sneaking suspicion that this is something to do with the unintended consequences of the obsession with party discipline that crept into our politics in the nineties. Back then party division was part of what made Labour unelectable and so the pagers and branding police brought in an era of blind obedience to the party line. A proportional electoral system based on closed party lists seems to have the same effect in Macedonia. Political careers are in the grubby hands of the party whips who decide how high up the list your name is and your chances of getting elected.

Party discipline, once a virtue is now a vice. It implies that MPs have left their capacity for independent thought at home (or perhaps in one of their flipped second homes). If they can’t think for themselves then people are entitled to ask what is the point of them at all.

Successful politicians seem to be the ones who show a bit of personality and individuality. Although it pains me to put Boris Johnson and Barak Obama in the same sentence, both made their name to some extent by speaking out somewhat against the party line.

My Macedonian MPs were at least thinking about how to restore some trust into politics – for them the alternatives are too unthinkable. As the next election here gets closer I fear that our politicians will cling even more tightly to their old friend, party discipline, and the voters will just stay at home.

Oxford in the 80s with Boris and Dave

2009-10-08T02:39:00.000-07:00

Nostalgic evening last night watching the Boris and Dave documentary on More 4. There were some great touches, with a young Dave playing the classic Sade LP and sporting the 80’s Oxford trendy uniform of black polo neck and Levi 501s. It captured the delightful cheesiness of the decade and the slight other-worldliness of the dreaming spires at that time. However, I’m fairly sure we had colour television back then so why the documentary researchers couldn’t find some better archive footage than the 50’s black and white stuff they used, I’m not quite sure.

It turns out that the young Dave Cameron lived in the house next door to me on the Cowley Road, at roughly the same time I was there. I lived at number 67 Cowley Road with three house-mates and a relatively anonymous Dave lived at number 69. I didn’t notice him then. I’m sure he wouldn’t have noticed me but everybody knew about Boris.

Boris was a Neanderthal clown even then. He presided over the Oxford Union with a ridiculous act of pompous colonial buffoonery. He made Brideshead Revisited look like an episode of Eastenders. The Tories at Oxford were generally a pretty loathsome bunch. Wearing their “Hang Nelson Mandela” badges and singing songs delighting in the adhesive nature of napalm when applied to “Arab skins”.

I didn’t know any of the Bullingdon club members but their reputation for trashing expensive restaurants was well known. I have to confess that I did spend a very drunken evening with one member of the current shadow cabinet unleashing “Captain Egg’s Campaign against the Poll Tax”. This involved careering around Oxford on a “borrowed” bicycle breaking eggs into cash point machines. Sorry Messrs Lloyds, Barclays, Nat West etc. We were revolting teenagers being pretty revolting.

But that crowd of old Etonian, tail-coat-wearing Sloanes were a tiny pimple on the acne covered face of normal student life. The rest of us were running campaigns to get our colleges and banks to dis-invest from apartheid South Africa. My College JCR President, the other Oxford “Dave”, Miliband, invited Ken Livingstone up to talk about equalities, anti-racism and newts. Andrew, now Government Minister Lord Adonis, was losing an SDP Alliance Council by-election campaign defending the great institution of the Oxford Kebab van.

Some of us got the modern world and others went on to shape it. I did a few years of inner city politics as a local councillor with the Liberal Democrats in Southwark and Bermondsey, whilst Dave went to Tory Central Office and Boris went global. Dave and Boris’s Oxford Bullingdon chums were hanging on to an old fashioned class system and free-market economics that were dramatically changing our society. We've come a long way since Thatcher's eighties. I’m not whether the British public will want to go back.

Pre-season nerves

2009-09-17T10:03:00.000-07:00

It is two days until the first game of the season for the Warlingham 4th XV and I’m feeling a mixture of optimism and nervousness. Optimistic, because it looks like I have got a massive squad of players available. Nervous because you can never tell whether they will all turn up. We also have a tricky season in store.

I’m not entirely sure how we have managed to get thirty one names onto the team-sheet for a friendly against Croydon. Last time I think we travelled there with twelve. During the rugby season I seem to spend most of my weekday evenings desperately emailing, texting and phoning potential players in order to cobble together a side.

On Tuesday night at my first selection meeting of the year it gradually became apparent that I almost had enough players to field two complete separate teams. It could be something to do with the fact the the first team have recruited a batch of new players over the summer, in a serious bid to make their way into national league rugby. Some quite handy players have drifted down the sides as result.

There may be a few bruised egos as some players take exception to being dropped in favour of a few “Johnny-come-lately” new recruits. They may stay at home and sulk rather than coming out to play for my lowly 4ths. I wouldn’t blame them really.

Last season, the Warlingham 4th XV finished third from bottom in the bottom league in Surrey. Surrey is apparently one of the biggest rugby counties with more leagues and teams than anywhere else. So that could mean that my team is the third worst in the entire nation. Only two teams are lower than us. One of those was Old Rutlishians, who failed to turn up at all for most of their games last year. They did manage to get a side together to play us twice, albeit without a front row, and beat us both times. The only other side was Croydon - our opponents this weekend.

This season could be slightly more tricky. The bearded and beer stained gentlemen of the Surrey RFC committee have decided, in their infinite wisdom, to merge the two bottom leagues and create one new super league - or “Foundation”. We will only play each side once and so on our current form we will be at the bottom of a much larger league, losing by much larger margins to much larger sides. Instead of being worse than six out the eight other members of our league we will be much worse than fifteen of the seventeen other members of our league and get spanked slightly more often.

So desperate times call for desperate measures. We have recruited a coach, Big Phil Sheridan, who we are sharing with the 3rd XV. We have signed up a physiotherapy student to run on from the touchline and administer the magic sponge once in a while. We have a complicated new set of line-out moves to perfect and some of us have even been to training.

I could have some real team selection dilemmas if everyone shows up. Normally, at this level of the game, the process is fairly straightforward. Last season, if I was lucky enough to have fifteen players available, I just allocated the positions on a first come first serve basis. That way a few people made a bit more of an effort to get to the pitch before the kick-off.

This year as its my third and possibly final season as 4th team captain, I have decided I really would like to win a few more games. That probably means identifying the better players and working on them to make sure they turn up every week. It also means doing something to help the less good players to improve their game and stay involved. Difficult, because I’m no great player myself. I only started playing rugby at the age of 35 when I got contact lenses for the first time. I have the physique of an under-developed hobbit and am not known for my physical prowess or co-ordination skills. I had to resign as the under 13s coach because they were all bigger than me and kept knocking me over when I was holding up the tackle pads.

Last year around seventy different players had a run out with the 4ths; mates and mates of mates who haven’t played for years or in some cases haven’t played at all. They have turned up and pulled on a Warlingham shirt and had a go. Its been quite fun really even though we lost more often than not. I’ve tried to be open to anyone who wants to get involved and we’ve adopted the principle that “No-one gives anyone any sh*t for being sh*t.” People who probably wouldn’t get any other form of exercise have enjoyed being part of a team.

The only problem has been that the rest of life sometimes gets in the way and it has been really hard to get any sort of consistency in the team we put out and the way we play. This year I’m going to try, so far as I can, to build up a slightly more regular squad, one that plays together every week, wins a bit more often and keeps a really good 4th team spirit. Wish me luck.

Recession... Was that it?

2009-09-01T01:50:00.000-07:00

I was delighted to hear this weekend that the recession is over. As someone who launched a new company at the peak of the global economic meltdown, I am looking forward to seeing what business will be like as the world gets back to normal. I thought now might be a good time to reflect on a first few months trading through a downturn.

As I suspected when I set up Gauge Opinion Ltd., the public sector has kept on spending and I been fortunate enough to have work from a handful of local authority and quango type clients. I have worked for Southwark, Camden, Waltham Forest and Bristol Councils providing a range of services from training, facilitating, coaching and general political communications. I have also spent some time touring the country, interviewing local councillors and their partners for a series of videos for the Audit Commission.

Local councillors have had a hard time of it over the last few months. Unfairly tainted with the general anti-politics malaise, they plough on, trying to improve local services against a backdrop of funding cuts, central government targets and small "c" conservatism. They are expected to lead local change without the support, salary and status that would be taken for granted in the private sector. I worry that things will get even tougher for them once the official recession is over and the Government starts trying to pay back the massive national debt incurred during the banking crisis.

I was pleased to find some private sector companies thriving over the last few months. The PR firm Hanover has been busy enough to employ the services of Gauge Opinion recently. We were asked to help with a pitch to a major drinks manufacturer and I was dispatched to Epsom to gauge opinion amongst local businesses and health service employees about recycling schemes. They were a really great bunch of people to work for, bright, beautiful and fizzing with creativity. Mind you, I did slightly feel like Betty Suarez as I walked into their glamorous Holborn offices.

If necessity is the mother of invention, then a recession should turn up some innovation. We are working on that here at Gauge Opinion Ltd. The highlight of my own personal downturn experience was a day's business planning with a team of associates who have joined me to create a new opinion polling service. A former MORI researcher and a digital/marketing genius who for contractual and legal reasons have to remain anonymous, joined me in our offices in Money Road to plot, scheme and create. As a result we hope to have a new, incredibly speedy method for accurately gauging the mood of the UK population, ready to launch on an unsuspecting marketplace in the autumn. Poised to track the shifting tides of opinion as we come out of the economic gloom and into the run up to a general election in the spring. Roll on the recovery!

Serbian Liberals gauge opinion in Belgrade with positive results

2009-04-28T04:12:00.000-07:00

One of the highlights of my weekend spent training members of the Serbian Liberal Democratic Party was when we sent our participants out into the streets of Belgrade armed only with clipboards and a resident's survey.

Within five minutes, Selena, an LDP member of Belgrade's City Council, had found a group of three young women to interview. As they reached the end of the questionnaire, Selena asked which political party they usually supported. One of them turned out to be a committed LDP supporter who enthusiastically handed over her contact details so that she could join the party and get more involved in the upcoming election campaigns.

One of the added benefits of talking to people and asking their views is that they often end up more favourably disposed towards your organisation. Gauging opinion clearly has hidden benefits ;-)

Live from Money Road

2009-04-22T08:27:00.001-07:00

As I type there is a huge BBC outside broadcast van parked in the street and a small group of engineers running wires around the Gauge Opinion headquarters here in Money Road. At 6:30 I am due to be live on BBC London News commenting on today's budget with some other local businesses.

I'm just pulling together my thoughts about the budget so I can condense it down into the 30 second sound bite I suspect we will be allowed.

I don't want to be too negative. The first few months of running my own business from here in Money Road has been quite encouraging. I've been able to find a few clients relatively easily. I've delivered public speaking and media training to South American medics in Amsterdam, one to one executive coaching to senior Local councillors in Bristol, and travelled all round the country interviewing chief executives for a video for the Audit Commission.

In March I managed to send out invoices for more that I have ever earned before in a month, which is encouraging. However, it is tricky to plan when you cannot be sure where the next project will come from and how long it will last. I'd quite like to take on a couple of staff at some point soon, to help grow the business, but the prospect of filling in the forms fills me with dread. Perhaps the chancellor could have merged the Inland Revenue and National Insurance in the budget which would cut the paperwork in half.

The Chancellor is promising to find £15 billion worth of efficiency savings somehow. As someone who has worked in the public, private and voluntary sector, I know there are plenty of ways the Government could spend our money more efficiently. That'll take a bit of a culture change and some real political leadership, which is currently sadly lacking.

I expect they'll ask me about the new 50p tax rate that seems to be leading the news at the moment. I think that is a bit of a gimmick really. Political game-playing designed to put the Tories on the spot. Nothing wrong with that but running a business you learn to look at the big numbers first. When the Government needs to borrow £200 billion plus in bonds to fund this budget that's when you need to start worrying.

Still, there's always the penny on a pint to talk about - perhaps we can drink our way to a recovery. I know my fellow Warlingham Rugby Club players will be happy to take on that challenge. I don't mind paying a bit more tax - but we should be able to see clearly where it's going. If you want to tax alcohol more then spend it pound for pound on dealing with some of the problems that alcohol creates, tackling violent crime for example. More money for bobbies on the beat rather than bailing out bungling bankers. I wonder if I can get that into the interview - might be a bit of a tongue twister.

There's plenty of help in the budget for the army of young unemployed people the Chancellor expects to create. There's less help for older people who are just as likely to be hit by the recession but will have greater responsibilities. The Chancellor might regret that when he and his cabinet colleagues lose their jobs in a year's time.

Global Favour Bank thriving in credit crunch

2009-02-27T09:37:00.000-08:00

Just returned from a week on the road, gauging the opinion of local authority chief executives in the Midlands, to discover that my favourite bank is thriving in these troubled times. The Global Favour Bank (GFB) is the one that we all make deposits in, every time we help someone out, and it gives us credit every now and again when we need a bit of support.

On my way back home, I thought I'd take a little detour and pop in to see some friends who are converting a barn. I spent a thoroughly enjoyable day and half with them, shovelling sand and levelling concrete. By October, they should have brought a grade two listed barn back into use and created a new wonderful home.

Conventional banks usually take 3 days to clear a cheque, about a week to sort out a loan and almost a month at times to open a business account. GFB turns things round a lot quicker. What should I find when I get home but a lovely new desk chair, donated by a rugby playing colleague, who took pity on me after seeing me on the TV sitting on a totally inappropriate piece of furniture whist typing out invoices.

GFB - The bank that likes to say "Here you go mate."

Instant Post-Awayday Action - just add water

2009-02-10T10:13:00.000-08:00

Chuffed to bits today. One of the first clients for Gauge Opinion Ltd was a group of local councillors in North London. They asked me to facilitate an awayday for them, and fortunately, as local government still has a few quid kicking around in spite of the credit crunch, there was a modest fee involved.

I always really enjoy facilitating awaydays. There can be a real buzz in the room when you get people out of their normal environment and they realise that they actually quite like working with each other. The only problem is that there is always a bit of a risk that, after a fun day, everyone goes back to the office and falls back into their old habits.

Not so, my lovely North London councillors. The first of four media stunts that they planned during the day, appeared today, first as a facebook photo album, then as a website news update, and no doubt later this week will find there way into the local papers and perhaps on the local TV News.

I'm also looking forward to launching another client's website tomorrow. It's for a firm of independent financial advisers who have managed to identify a niche insurance market that they are working really hard to serve. Its really encouraging to see a small company in a tricky sector deciding to invest in growing their business. The whole team seem to be getting involved in the project now and people are showing new talents - including an eagle eyed proof-reader who has sent me a very long list of changes for me and to work through tonight. Fortunately that's the day time for our web designer in Singapore. But still, its back to work for me now.

New Year - New Company

2009-01-08T07:13:00.001-08:00

Today I got my first letter addressed to the Managing Director of Gauge Opinion Ltd. So I guess its official; I now have my own company registered at Company's House and ready to start doing some Strategic Communications consultancy work. Fortunately I have two clients already and am busy looking for the third.

All the communications work I have done successfully in the past has started with a process of gauging opinion - finding out what people think about a product, a campaign, a service or an organisation. Having picked up a degree in Experimental Psychology from Corpus Christi College, Oxford, I've always tried to take a systematic, evidence based approach to analysing public opinion. I also have some very bright associates with national opinion polling experience and Masters degrees in social research methods who I am looking forward to working with.

The next stage is about finding creative and intelligent ways to change people's opinions. For many years my work has been about writing in a way which changes the way people think about things. I have written and directed documentary scripts for the Discovery channel and shot corporate videos and organised conferences for blue chip public companies. I have crafted campaign literature for parliamentary candidates and national and local charities. Its all been about finding the key message and a creative way to get it across to the right people.

I think there are thousands of people out there who's views are either ignored or taken for granted. People who don't vote, don't fill in surveys and don't go to consultation meetings. Often, small businesses have possible new customers who's opinion and potential they might have inadvertently overlooked. Here at Gauge Opinion we (OK its just me and the dog on the payroll at this stage - but from humble beginnings...) will be working on some new ways of engaging some of those people too in the New Year.

Happy New Year

Time for a Victims' Ombudsman

2008-12-19T11:12:00.000-08:00

Colin Stagg is finally vindicated. Robert Napper killed Rachel Nickell and the British Criminal Justice system has now confirmed it. It only took sixteen years.

The story I think is possibly being missed here is the miscarriage of justice suffered by Napper's next victims, Samantha Bissett and her daughter Jazmine. When the criminal justice system gets it wrong, not only do the falsely accused suffer, but we all suffer. The real perpetrators are allowed to roam free and destroy more lives.

There is, quite rightly, a process for getting miscarriages of justice corrected. It takes time, too much time, but sometimes it works. Sadly there is no equivalent process for getting non-carriage of justice corrected. When no-one is convicted of an offence because of a failure in the system, there is no-one out there campaigning on behalf of the victims and the potential future victims.

That is why I think there is a need for a Victim's Ombudsman. Someone who can take up a case on behalf of victims and their families when the criminal justice system fails to do its job and secure justice.

Every now and again, for understandable reasons, and with the best intentions on the part of the individuals involved, the criminal justice system fails. Things fall between the cracks, get missed or messed up. Sometimes the policies, procedures, rules and regulations, drawn up with the best of intentions, don't quite work.

When that happens in local government there is an Ombudsman who can take up a complaint, make a ruling and get the decision changed. Once a year a report comes out and sometimes the wrinkles get ironed out. There are Ombudsmen in all sectors who can write systemic wrongs. There is one for prisoners, there is one for estate agents, there is even one for the removal industry. Its time we had one for victims.

the art of the possible

2008-12-18T02:43:00.000-08:00

To describing politics as, "The art of the possible," is to describe politics at its best. Sadly in the UK today politics is more a game of plodding along a predictable path. A tired government plodding through a crisis that some of us predicted. An opposition whose response is as predictable as panto. Is anything better possible?

The first job Obama had to do in the States in order to get elected was to convince his supporters that change was possible. In handing over the slogan, "Yes we can," he got his base to articulate and believe that they could win. It was possible for the US to elect a black president. It was possible to elect a president who would look after the economic interests of those worse off in society.

The next stage was to think about what would become possible after that. I was at a public meeting in Ohio during the election when Bill Richardson, now Obama's Commerce Secretary, launched into an extraordinary dream sequence in which he imagined the inauguration speech that a liberal president would make. It was possible to imagine a US president who would announce the closure of Guantanamo Bay, the end of torture by US proxies, a foreign policy that worked for peace rather than heightened hatred. It was possible for a US president to champion liberal social attitudes at home and abroad. It was possible.

So do we dare to imagine what is possible in the UK? Is it possible to create a society that values the strength of the community more highly than the strength of the pound. Can we raise real interest rates. Not the interest rates that obsess the monetary policy committee and the boys in the city but the rate of human interest in our neighbours, our families, our society. How interested are people in what is going on around them and how engaged are they in doing something about it?

Can we imagine a society where no-one is a victim of violent crime rather than one in which there are almost two murders every day. There are things that we could do that would create a safer society - but with our boringly predictable government and our boringly predictable opposition and our boringly predictable media we never will.

As I have recently decided to work for myself, I am now in a position where, for me, anything is possible. I am going to spend some time seeing what else is possible for our society and whether it is possible to do something more about it. Does anyone want to make an unpredictable response?

DNA data dilemma

2008-12-16T10:29:00.000-08:00

The other day I was asked to comment on Channel Four News about the latest European ruling on DNA databases. Tediously, I couldn't comment as I was in the midst of parting company from the Suzy Lamplugh Trust (see posting below) where I have been the Chief Executive for the last year.

Ever the media tart, its not like me to turn down an interview. However, this one might have given me a massive liberal dilemma. On behalf of a charity set up to represent the views of victims of violent crime and campaign for a safer society, I would have been obliged to take a very straight, pro-government line. Get as much data as possible into the hands of the police to increase the likelihood of bad people getting caught for doing bad things. The more likely people think they are to get caught, the less likely they are to commit the crime. Violent people are violent because they think that they will get away with it. More DNA data could lead directly to less violence. Good thing.

On the other hand, as a good liberal, I'm naturally suspicious of having too much information in the hands of the state. Knowledge is power. Power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely etc. etc. This government hasn't exactly covered itself in glory with how it has handled confidential information. I'm not sure I can trust this or any Government with my or anyone else's DNA.

But I still want there to be less violent crime. 750 murders a year is 750 too many. A really good DNA database might go some way to bringing down the two million violent crimes every year.

We need a wooly liberal compromise to get round this one. Here's my suggestion.

Get everyone's DNA data on a database, but don't let the Government get its hands on it. Give it to a University, or better still a group of Universities to manage. Set it up with a rock solid legal framework to ensure that the state can't abuse it. Let Shami Chakrabarti draft the legislation to protect it.

Don't get tied up in knots about whether to get people who have been arrested but not convicted onto the database. Ask everyone in the country to submit a swab.

I'd sooner go to prison than carry an ID card, but I would be happy for one of our great Universities, to have a copy of my DNA data and check it off against scene of crime samples. And if one of my relatives did something unpleasant and violent, I'd be happy for the police to find their way to them via me.

Whilst they had the data, I wouldn't object if they did some general research with it too. Goodness only knows what they life enhancing science they might uncover with a complete national DNA database to study.

If some future Government were to try and abuse its powers, we could probably rely on some revolting students to take a stand.

Make it voluntary if you like. The social pressure caused by the revulsion we all feel when we hear about the latest brutal murder would have people queuing up to have a swab taken.

We use the science of DNA to prevent and cure diseases. Why not use it to prevent the symptoms of the social disease of violence and aggression that kills 750 people every year and injures two million more?

Press Release

2008-12-10T09:15:00.000-08:00

Suzy Lamplugh Trust today issued the following statement:

Chief Executive of Suzy Lamplugh Trust, Steven Gauge, has left his post by mutual consent in order to pursue a range of consultancy and other business opportunities.

Chairman of the Board of Trustees, Lawrie Philpott, said:

“During his time at the Trust, Steven has been unfailingly positive and enthusiastic. His charm and upbeat personality will be missed by staff and management alike.”

Owing to the present economic climate, the Trust will not be immediately replacing Steven.

Joint Directors of Personal Safety, Ann Elledge and Sarah Haddon, will take over the interim day-to-day running of the charity.

ENDS

Press/Media enquiries to: Jo Walker, Press Officer Tel: 07747 611308 E-mail – jo.walker@suzylamplugh.org

Economics and Crime

2008-10-13T01:31:00.000-07:00

In spite of London’s higher than average crime figure, there are time when the capital feels remarkably safe and peaceful. First thing on a Sunday morning when the suburbs are full of traffic, central London is a delight. So I was really pleased to be asked to go in to the ITN offices at Grays Inn Road this Sunday morning to do a couple of pre-recorded interviews ready for today’s National Personal Safety Day.

When we planned our campaign for National Personal Safety Day several months ago we had no idea that we would be in the middle of a global economic collapse. Trying to shoe-horn our messages about personal safety into the media today may test the skills of my extremely able press team.

The economy and violent crime are integrally linked. As the nation’s gross domestic product goes down gross domestic crime goes up. There is an increase in acquisitive crime and workplace violence. If anyone needs a bailout it will be to police authorities in high crime areas.

In the real economy, outside the banking bubble, life goes on. In schools up and down the country, teachers are downloading our lesson plans and getting personal safety messages out to their pupils. My daughter is preparing a school assembly. The staff team here are getting ready to don their strangely fetching LIVE LIFE SAFE designer tabards and set off to hand out our gorgeous new Suzy Lamplugh Trust season ticket holders to unsuspecting commuters on their journey home.

Now I’m off to set up camp in a Millbank BBC radio studio to see how many times I can repeat the phrase “Unplugged is un-mugged” before they cut back to the stock exchange.

Ten ways to tackle violent crime

2008-09-22T07:21:00.000-07:00

Suzy Lamplugh was just 24 when she disappeared in 1986. In 2008 the Suzy Lamplugh Trust recruited a group of young academics, all in their early twenties to review the body of research into violent crime. Our aim was to develop new approaches to an old problem. Violent crime kills 750 people and injures two million more in the UK every year.

These ten proposals have come out of their research. What do you think? Would you add any or take any away?

Increased visible policing in areas with high levels of violent crime
Targeted personal safety advice for young men in high crime areas
Support for community based mentoring programmes that provide high status alternatives to violent crime and gang membership
Reform of the prison system to focus on reducing re-offending rates
Prisons to be given targets and resources to ensure that no-one leaves prison without a job to go to
Increased taxes on alcohol to reduce binge drinking and overall consumption levels whilst funding increased policing in areas of high levels of violence
Tougher licensing regimes to close down premises linked to increased levels of violent crime in the surrounding area
A new public awareness campaign to challenge acceptance of sexual violence against women
A new Victims Ombudsman with powers to hold the criminal justice system to account
Better information sharing between agencies dealing with people with mental health problems to ensure that they continue to receive the support they need in prison or in the community

hear no violence, see no violence, spin no violence

2008-08-26T13:30:00.000-07:00

News is what somebody somewhere wants to suppress. All the rest is advertising. So said newspaper magnate Lord Northcliffe and he couldn't have been more right. Today I have had a flurry of media interviews following our decision to highlight the most dangerous places in the UK mostly caused by people who wished I had kept quiet about the figures.

The top ten most dangerous places are identified, for those who care to look for them, in Home Office crime stats published about a month ago. All we did was get hold of the excel spreadsheet which showed the basic command units that the police operate in and their levels of reported crime for violent crimes against the person. We then sorted that list into those with the highest levels of reported crime per 1000 of the population.

There were no great surprises in the list. Some large cities and four London boroughs all made the top ten as you might expect. What I didn't expect was the level of denial by some of the areas in the top ten. There has been a flurry of senior police officers and local councillors trying to claim that the figures are in someway wrong and that they don't have a problem. All is apparently sweetness and light if it wasn't for busybodies like me raising the fear of crime. Areas where violent crime is clearly rising want to insist that it is falling. I had one very aggressive woman call from a London Borough ranting at me on the phone that this would undo all the good work that had been done.

Methinks they doth protest too much. 750 people are murdered in the UK every year. There are 2 million violent crimes a year. That is too many in my book. For the areas where most of these crimes happen to deny they have a problem is dangerously irresponsible. The first step in curing alcoholism is to admit you have a problem. The first step in ending the social disease that is violence and aggression is to admit you have a problem and ask for help.

There are many people who need to have a bit more fear of crime. Young men aged between 16-24 are the people most likely to be a victim of violent crime. Most of them seem to think that they are invincible and that it'll never happen to them. As a result they expose themselves to dangerous risks, disregarding their own personal safety, and all too many are ending up dead.

Women have taken on board the personal safety advice given out by the Suzy Lamplugh Trust over the last two decades. Young men have yet to get the message. It doesn't help us to get the message out to them if local bigwigs insist on putting their local spin ahead of the national statistics. Violence doesn't go away if you stop talking about it - more people become victims if information about the risks they face is suppressed.

Carry an alarm, not a knife

2008-07-04T09:18:00.000-07:00

With yet another tragic knife killing in London the media is full of heart wrenching stories. Everyone wants something to be done but no-body really has any answers. Brooke Kinsella said on Newsnight last night that whatever is being done, its not enough and she's right.

The Suzy Lamplugh Trust was set up over two decades ago to tackle violence in society and we need to do more. We have been selling personal attack alarms for years - but mostly to women and people who employ women. We need to start selling them to young men.

But here is the question. How do we persuade boys that it is cool to carry an alarm? How do we convince them that it is safer to blast someone's eardrums out and then run, rather than flash a blade and kill someone?

Young people tell us and the media that they are carrying knives to keep themselves safe. Can we persuade them that carrying an alarm would make them safer?

Listening to victims of violent crime

2008-06-13T02:00:00.000-07:00

A woman, who had been sexually assaulted in a South London park, came to visit me recently at the Suzy Lamplugh Trust’s National Centre for Personal Centre. She was still gradually putting her life back together after the trauma of the attack. One thing that was clearly not helping her recovery was that, in her view, a series of bureaucratic bungles between the police, the Crown Prosecution Service and the Courts had meant that the perpetrator had remained free and had subsequently attacked other women.

So what is she to do? What is any victim to do in similar circumstances? She doesn’t seem to have very many options. The criminal justice system will carry on doing its best no doubt to bring offenders to justice, but seems unlikely to benefit from her experience.

In many other walks of public life there are checks and balances to make sure that public bodies learn from their mistakes. There are ombudsmen who can review cases of maladministration, make judgements and recommendations and produce annual reports that can lead to changes in policy and practice. There are ombudsmen for children, local government, pensions, prisoners and the health service. There are even ombudsmen for estate agents and the removals industry.

Yet when someone is sexually assaulted and feels that the legal system as a whole has failed there is no-one who can do anything about it for her. No one is empowered to review the case, highlight any mistakes, and embarrass the criminal justice system into sharpening up its act.

There is a police complaints authority, but its role would seem to be mostly about hearing complaints from people wrongly arrested or shot etc. There is a legal services ombudsman but its role is to hear complaints about poor administration of complaints to the solicitors’ self-regulatory bodies. No one can challenge the Crown Prosecution Service and once something gets to court, the victim can make an impact statement but again has no way of challenging the decision or the process.

Sadly the people who often know the most about what has gone wrong in a case are the ones who are listened to least. They will be dismissed as irrational or emotional yet their vested interest in the outcome will mean that they will very closely follow the twists and turns of the process. If anyone can spot a crack in the criminal justice system it will be someone seeking justice for a crime committed against them.

Most victims I have encountered so far, in my role as Chief Executive of the Suzy Lamplugh Trust, just want to make sure that what happened to them doesn’t happen to anyone else. When they have done everything they could and the system fails someone else needs to pick that up.

A Victims’ Ombudsman could review cases that have collapses somewhere in the system and work out why. It would need to be independent of the police and the courts and the crown prosecution service. It would be able to pin the blame properly and prevent bureaucratic buck passing. Once a year it could report and recommend changes to the structure to speed up justice and prevent those other miscarriages that leave. That is why I believe we need a Victims’ Ombudsman to speak up for the over 2 million people every year who are victims of a violent crime and the 750 people who are murdered every year. Perhaps then gradually we would see a criminal justice system emerge that had the confidence of the people it is there to serve.

2008-06-02T09:09:00.000-07:00

Over twenty years ago, the disappearance of a 24 year-old Estate Agent called Suzy Lamplugh was big news. Her death led to the establishment of a charity and a wealth of initiatives to improve the personal safety of women at work. The trust rapidly grew to take on personal safety for everyone, everywhere. Today, the story is of a seemingly endless stream of teenagers being murdered at play. With every new funeral there is a chorus of appeals for “Something to be done,” but there is no consensus around what that “something” should be.

Young people don’t feel safe. The average age of homicide victims is getting younger each year so an increased fear amongst the young is hardly surprising. The Suzy Lamplugh Trust is regularly asked to go into schools and youth clubs to teach young people what they need to do to stay safe.

There are things that young people can do to improve their personal safety and carrying a knife is not one of them. They can learn how to avoid potentially violent situations. They can develop skills for diffusing tension and looking out for their friends. Sometimes, young people need to learn that their own actions can make things worse and turn a minor dispute into a dreadful tragedy.

So there are things that young people can do for themselves to stay safe but surely we have a responsibility as adults to create a safer world for them to grow up in. Knee jerk reactions are not enough.

750 people of all ages are murdered every year in this country. Two and a half million are victims of violent crime. If those figures were associated with a medical disease, millions of pounds would be raised for research and awareness raising campaigns. Celebrities would be seen wearing delightful t-shirts and auctioning off their underwear to raise money. Violence and aggression is a social disease and it is now beginning to affect younger and younger children. There will not be a great deal of profit to be made by the pharmaceutical industry developing a vaccine. No new wonder drug will be able to cure being stabbed.

There is an urgent need for more robust research into the causes of violence and aggression in society. An evidence-based approach to policy making in this area has to be adopted. Millions have been spent preparing a response to bird flu, which hasn’t mutated yet into the form we need to worry about. Yet precious little is being done to cure the social disease of violence and aggression, which is wiping out young lives almost every weekend.

Perhaps tougher sentencing might work. I personally doubt it, but no one appears to be testing that hypothesis in a remotely systematic way. Some evidence suggests that offenders believe that sentences are higher than they really are. So they have clearly not been deterred by the higher sentences they thought existed.

The statistics on stabbings being collected are pitiful. To monitor knife crime researchers have to use the proxy of measuring admissions to hospital of people injured with a sharp instrument. If we are relying on the NHS to provide the raw data perhaps we should involve them in developing the cure. What would NICE say about the cost effectiveness of the latest government initiatives to reduce knife crime? Does anyone have the faintest idea what really works?

I suspect there are probably strong links between social infrastructure and violence in societies. Communities where people know their neighbours, and know their neighbours’ children probably are safer. They will certainly feel safer. Quaker Social Action ran a successful programme of street parties in East London last year and the Suzy Lamplugh Trust was invited to participate by providing personal safety workshops. People on the same floor of a council block, who had never spoken to each other before, got to know each other, understand a little more about their different cultures and began to look out for each other. More research into the benefits of these and other initiatives might indicate other effective ways to spend public money.

Communities where people feel that they are a valued part of society are probably safer too. When we glorify celebrity we undervalue everything else. Every time one of those reality talent shows talks about the dream of changing someone from "Just" a housewife, plumber, bin man, nurse etc. into someone allowed to sing on the telly, they insult and degrade every hardworking "Ordinary" person. Recognising and celebrating wider range of lifestyles and occupations might go some way to reducing the alienation felt by young people and might in turn lead to lower levels of violence.

As the property markets and the banking industry collapse, perhaps a few newly redundant analysts and economists could turn their number crunching brains to the more pressing social need of reversing the spread of violent crime.